If you were hoping that Fall was here to stay weather wise, you are in for a rude awakening this week. It's going to feel more like August than October for most of the work week. Record highs are even possible.
Normal highs are in the upper 60s this time of the year, but our high temps will be a good 10-15 degrees above normal by Wednesday; well into the 80s.
Why so warm?
A powerful series of storm systems hammering the Pacific Northwest is part of an active jet stream on the other side of the country. And while the stormy weather will stay out of our region, the overall weather pattern will help to build high pressure and heat over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic into the middle of the week. It's just the jet stream pattern balancing out one extreme with the other. The weather pattern for Virginia means temperatures more like summer with record highs possible, even in the mountains.
A strong ridge of high pressure aloft is set to expand from the Gulf Coast to the Mid Atlantic coast this week, blocking any cold fronts or storm systems from cooling us off. The southwest and west winds around the high will compress off of the mountains. In fact, the high itself will promote sinking air and sunshine Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Our friends at the National Weather Service in Blacksburg have shared what the record highs for each area are for Monday-Thursday of this week (shown below). Right now, I'm thinking many areas will reach the middle 80s Tuesday and especially Wednesday. It will be about five degrees cooler in the mountains, but even then, highs near 80 could threaten records in Blacksburg and Bluefield. Roanoke will come within 2-3 degrees of record highs this week as will Lynchburg and Southside.
The pattern will finally start to break down some Thursday into Friday, allowing a fetch of moisture and a front to cross the area with rain showers Friday. But ahead of that feature, we'll likely still be very warm in the southerly flow ahead of it Thursday.
Friday will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s and rain showers. As cool as that will feel, it's actually only a return to normal to end the work week.
Models are hinting at a tropical or subtropical disturbance or storm off the SE coast by Friday. Any interaction with Friday's front is still being figured out by the models.
Until then, very warm - if not "hot" - and dry weather is the main weather story for several days to come.